Smeet Week: Desperate Times Call for Repeat Ideas
Before Week Six officially kicked off, I had hoped to have robust survey of playoff contenders highlighting who they thought was the best teams in the league as a mid-season playoff preview of sorts. Then, the only person who responded might not even finish .500 so I scrapped that idea.
Then I was going to go into detail about the huge upsets this weekend where Garcia, Smeet, and Fredo lost, but Fredo and Smeet survived and I’m not sure Carlos over Garcia is an upset any more.
But the underlying theme of all this was Smeet — its Smeet Week after all for the Commish and our match-up is the second (or third) biggest game of Week Six. First place in the division is on the line of course but we all are aware of Smeet’s 2021 success despite the following: A) Smeet did not prep for the draft whatsoever; B) Smeet consumed edibles during the draft; C) Smeet’s dealing with a lot of distractions; D) Over the past two months, Smeet’s been busy introducing ‘Single Smeet’ to every cavity within the Garden State; and E) Despite every pundit suggesting otherwise, Smeet’s starting multiple Jets and Falcons every single week. As someone who admittedly takes this too seriously, all of these facts drive me crazy, none more than Cordarrelle Patterson (we’ll get to him).
Being Smeet Week, and no other ideas, I took it upon myself to provide cutting edge analysis for six or seven of you to read, highlighting who’s got a chance to win the title, and who is just pretending to play this season. (Also, for your amusement, let’s spice it up with some candidates for Single Smeet’s Tinder profile, all of which will be sprinkled down below. I have a file of Smeet pics). For my own sanity, I’m bypassing Stabs and Markezy. To Stabs, kudos for tanking like a champ and I’m officially ranking you as a 2022 postseason contender. As for Markezy, it was cute he almost won despite Ridley being out four days before kickoff, but if he doesn’t care, I certainly don’t either. That said, something tells me he won’t forget ahead of Bridge Bowl this weekend.
I’ve thrown in records but also scoring averages, which I think is much more useful except in Fredo’s case in 2019 when he was second in the league in scor- yada yada yada. Also, since the sample sizes are small, I tried to be mindful of extreme outliers like Fredo’s Week Two 198, so for fun I also shared the adjusted scores minus best and worst weekly outputs. To my surprise, every team’s score was pretty much the same [shoulder shrug]…
Anyways, in no particular order, our 2021 Title Contenders vs Pretenders addition commences in three… two… oh shit I gotta pick up my kid at nursery school…
Asterik (3–2)
Average Points per Week: 122.8; Adjusted Average Points per Week: 122.9
If targets were points, Stefon Diggs would be WR9 in 2021; unfortunately, they are not. Instead, Diggs hovers around 14 points per game. The Buffalo WR is actually getting more targets this season compared to 2020 (1.5 more per game) but his actual stats are down this season clearly as he’s projected to catch 30 fewer balls and 300 fewer yards and half the touchdowns compared to last year.
Meanwhile, for no particular reason, Derrick Henry is outpacing both Diggs and Kenny Golloday by roughly four points per game combined and Toby would be a much more formidable team with a stud running back in that lineup to pair with Najee Harris. Regression…
Final Verdict: PRETENDER
Mark Hutchinson (2–3)
Average Points per Week: 125.5; Adjusted Average Points per Week: 125.6
When I previewed Mark’s team ahead of our Week Five matchup, his roster looked like a hospital ward. Our match-up was fun and there’s a lot of really good fantasy players on his squad suited for a losing team (Hurts, Edmonds, Knox, Kirk), meaning very good players that legitimate contenders would trade to get better pieces.
Also, did anyone else check in on Mark after that Godwin trade? The Bucs WR is talented (I obviously tried) but giving up cheap Travis Etienne for three years plus draft cash for a low-end WR1 while starting Edmonds and Brandon Boldin in this league is just perfect.
Final Verdict: PRETENDER
Fredo (4–1)
Average Points per Week: 136.2; Adjusted Average Points per Week: 135.9
Despite an anxiety-riddled weekend, Fredo’s literally three wins away from that elusive post-season berth, CMC appears on the mend, and Lamar Jackson was absolutely amazing Monday night. So everything is gravy!
Eh, not exactly. Here’s this week’s list of reasons for Fredo to hate fantasy football:
· Since posting 41.5 points in Week Two, Aaron Jones averages around 15 points per week (RB17), which probably couldn’t happen at a worse time for Fredo.
· Geno Smith is once again relevant in his life.
· His roster has more injuries than the Giants, including CMC and more notably Kittle.
· He’s not going to like this, or believe this, but Tee Higgins is not a WR1 and his ROS suggests he’s a low-end WR2 at best (Ja’Marr Chase is a low-end WR1). Yes, Higgins has been banged up but in three games this season he’s averaging a pedestrian five catches for 50 yards on seven targets. It is what it is. That said, Fredo absolutely side chatted me once about how our 2021 seasons would ironically be linked to the successes of Higgins and Austin Ekeler, who were swapped last season.
All isn’t lost of course. He’s being slept on but Keenan Allen is third in the league in targets even if he isn’t posting touchdowns every week and, circling back to New York, with all the wide receiver injuries, Evan Engram posted four targets in Week Five, his [squints to read] lowest target total of the season.
I’m just kidding — Fredo’s fine enjoying a one-game lead in a division he recently described as “[not] great,” and doesn’t face Larry or the Unicorn for a few weeks.
Final Verdict: CONTENDER
SK (3–2)
Average Points per Week: 142.3; Adjusted Average Points per Week: 140.9
You have to love this franchise. After averting its first three-game losing streak in three seasons, one Vienna insider pondered, “How close were we to it’s officially time to worry about the Sausages?”
Honestly, I detailed this franchise with 14,000 words two weeks ago so we know what’s up. They remain the team to beat solely because the hold the belt, but the Week Five victory relied on three players scoring season highs while starting two RB3s (Joe Mixon and Alex Collins).
Final Verdict: CONTENDER
FIL (3–2)
Average Points per Week: 139.1; Adjusted Average Points per Week: 138
Did you know FIL’s average score in losses would be 23 points higher than the league average in scoring, and 143 points per game would be third highest in scoring. Yikes. Even worse, CEH’s injury not only cost him a shot in Week Five, but also I’ve already traded his back-up so FIL is really screwed. (pre-CEH injury, I was ok with the trade for FIL, getting an RB2 and a comparable QB to Mahomes while moving a potentially overrated Brandin Cooks before anyone realizes Deshaun Watson isn’t the quarterback in Houston.)
That said, we’ve seen this show before…
Final Verdict: PRETENDER
Commish (4–1)
Average Points per Week: 157.5; Adjusted Average Points per Week: 160.6
Ukraine Steel is in good shape, but its Week Six so let’s not plan the logistics surrounding how the Commish gets the belt from Larry in December just yet. I won’t delve in to too much detail about Zekezilla and the Gang; instead, more notably, the Commish has a few tough match-ups ahead (Week Six vs Smeet; Week 7 vs. the Unicorn with the byes), but afterwards, it’s the Asterik, Carlos, Markezy, Garcia, and Coop. If the Commish manages one win in the next two weeks, his schedule moving forward is a little less burdensome than his competitors.
Also, worth noting, teams on average score the third most points against the Commish, roughly 143 points per week. This might not mean much, but it is recognizing the quality of opponents, as the Commish already faced off against two other top-five scoring teams in the league in FIL and Tito Galen. By comparison, undefeated Smeet’s opponents on average score just 109. This isn’t a reflection on Smeet per se but if you dropped a dud in Week One where you scored 105, but Markezy only scored 79, you still get the victory. In the Commish’s lone dud, Fredo curb stomped him with 198 points…
Final Verdict: CONTENDER
Unicorn (3–2)
Average Points per Week: 137; Adjusted Average Points per Week: 142.2
The Unicorn’s sadistic obsession with the Commissioner aside, Silvio’s team is really good. Mike Williams remains insanely amazing even while Cooper Kupp settles in as a WR2 over the last two weeks and Sam Darnold does Sam Darnold things. This team is very capable of posting big numbers, but its obvious hole (running back) will hold them back, even with the Kamara addition a few weeks ago.
With so many offensive options for the Cowboys, Chargers, and Rams, the Unicorn’s wide receivers may not get the consistent volume needed three straight weeks in the playoffs.
Final Verdict: PRETENDER
Carlos (2–3)
Average Points per Week: 108.4; Adjusted Average Points per Week: 107.4
Two game win streak! Probably wins Week Two against the Asterik if he’d started Hollywood! In this conversation despite benching Rodgers for Fields once AND not starting a running back in another match-up. New Carlos doesn’t care what I think, but at least he cares (which is better than Markezy).
Final Verdict: PRETENDER
Tito Galen (2–3)
Average Points per Week: 144; Adjusted Average Points per Week: 144
In his three losses, Tito Galen’s scores would — on average — outscore nine teams each week, including a whopping eleven teams in Week Four. I really like the Traditionalist’s team and is probably the team I most want to avoid in in the playoffs. Also, he’s 2–3 right now, but a victory and he’s a game out of first place in a weak division.
Final Verdict: CONTENDER
Coop (2–3)
Average Points per Week: 105.9; Adjusted Average Points per Week: 105.4
He’s only here because I needed to include all 2–3 teams so I could include Garcia. He hasn’t exceeded the league scoring average since Week One yet, in this league where six teams finish within a game of the playoffs (or not), I fully anticipate having to discuss the six-way hypotheticals in which Coop can make the playoffs in Week 14.
Final Verdict: PRETENDER
Garcia (1–4)
Average Points per Week: 127; Adjusted Average Points per Week: 117
Ahead of 2021, in pre-season fantasy rankings, Garcia’s current team featured the QB1, RB3, RB10, WR7, WR9, WR14, and TE10. This team also Kamara, Tyreek, Dak, and Terry. On paper (even now) this team was/is a top three contender. And yet, Garcia’s averaging 127 points per week, good for 7th in the league and it’d be a lot worse f we removed his Week 4 175 posting. In Garcia’s four losses, he hasn’t eclipsed 120 points.
He’s the toughest team to evaluate because the results run counter to the talent. With four losses, he definitely can still make the playoffs (I’m guessing 7–7 gets there), but what’s worrisome for Thanos is the schedule — after the Week Six Rivalry of the Year against a suddenly-spry if not trying Markezy, Garcia still faces Fredo, Larry, FIL, the Commish and Tito Galen. Garcia’s margin of error is so slim right now.
Final Verdict: CONTENDER
Smeet (5–0)
Average Points per Week: 142.5; Adjusted Average Points per Week: 141
Here’s the inspiration for the column, our dear Single Smeet crushing it in fantasy… and real life. I remain shocked he’s even relevant but the scoring more so than the record is a pretty good indicator he is legit, dropping a week high 184 in Week 3 and 162 this past weekend. Even adjusting his scoring, there isn’t too many discrepancies. That said, his first three wins came against the three of the four worst teams in the league record-wise, but he hung on to big wins over the Sausage King (again!) and FIL these last two weeks.
My big concern? He’s relying heavily on players from the Falcons and Jets. Sorry, but it has to be said! Cordarrelle Patterson has been a revelation in Atlanta but can we just take a look under the hood for a second?
For this exercise, we’re comparing Cordarrelle with 2021 RB1 Derrick Henry (Note to Toby) and CMC’s 2019 season, which is the best fantasy season for a running back in the last decade.
Before we clamor that this is disrespectful to Smeet’s ‘strategy,’ can we highlight that what Cordarelle is doing is historic? In less than 29 snaps per game, Patterson basically gets the ball every other snap and adds .6 points more per touch than the best running back in the league. He’s already tied his career-high for touchdowns in just four games and, even more insane, he’s outperforming 2019 CMC in points by 25%.
Am I relieved to avoid him this week? Sure. Will I face Smeet again in Week 14? Yes. Do I think Patterson can continue this historic pace? No. There’s a reason Larry sent him packing two weeks ago.
Patterson’s success is Smeet’s in a nutshell.
Final Verdict: CONTENDER (for now)
There we go — following its publication, let’s be certain the following reactions will occur:
· The Unicorn will exclaim “I don’t care” then spend 500 characters attacking the Commish’s analysis.
· Toby will argue Diggs is a top-three wide receiver because of his targets even though he’s already admitted he lost the trade.
· No less than four owners will not read this column.
· Mark and Garcia will both claim it’s a “good read.’ (Thanks!)
· Despite not reading this, Tito Galen will presume I’ve attacked his team.
· The League will spend more time focused on the Commish’s Smeet Week than Bridge Bowl.
· These predictions will largely be disproven.
· Finally, notice the Contenders don’t have a whole lot of running back issues? Except for Larry starting Joe Mixon.
And the rest yada yada yada.