Love is Love
Love is love, right? And not Bryce Love, the former Stanford/WFT running back I stashed thinking he’d be a valuable keeper (no surprise but my rookie running back gamble fell apart). Actually, I mean love is love, whether it’s a man and a woman, father and kids, Toby and Juju, we all love who we love. My uncle here in the DC region has so much love he has two partners — essentially the Commish had an extra uncle to pass judgement on my life decisions when I was living comfortably in their basements free of charge back in the early 2010s.
While I always cherished the love my uncles enjoyed, for large swaths of America, that wasn’t always the case. Back in 1997, nearly three-quarters of all Americans opposed gay marriage. By the time I crashed Uncle Mike’s basement, roughly fifty percent of Americans supported it and, amazingly, today 70% are on board. Its pretty remarkable how quickly that script flipped and provides a sense of hope that if you can change, and I can change, maybe we can all change.
Like gay marriage, GMRRFFA also has its own hot button issue that slowly overcame (most) naysayers to become the clear cut favorite of the league: Trades involving Future Draft Dollars.
Back in January of 2018, the league wisely passed the measure by the slimmest of margins, 8–6. To no one’s surprise, many of those opposed likely were apprehensive of incorporating a new strategy into an already-complex league. In those early days, along with trading draft dollars, we simultaneously increased the number of keepers, capped the number of consecutive seasons to keep said players, and reimagined how keeper salaries would be calculated (ie the James Conner rule), major shifts that occurred within twelve months. If you weren’t knee-deep in this league, it could getreally complicated.
After the measure passed, to everyone’s credit we thoughtfully developed how this rule would be implemented. Your Commissioner established an Ad Hoc Rules Committee, featuring six dedicated owners, including two who opposed the measure originally (Tito Galen and the indefensible Smeet). After a few weeks of conversation, we incorporated some protections — a draft budget floor of $225, an aggressive 20% tax on trades, and the creation of the LB6 to encourage owners to thoughtfully move assets (both sellers and buyers). While the system needed some refining (and maybe still does), GMRRFFA successfully incorporated a new lever to increase competition as well as an actual strategy to keep bottom-feeders interested in the league that doesn’t involve a tattoo or something else 80% of us wouldn’t do if we finished in last place.
Getting back to 2021, last week changed the conversation around this revolutionary — yes, its incredibly unique to fantasy sports where 99.9% of the time the names change but all the rules stay the same over decades — tool. It wasn’t quite the Garcia handicap fistacuffs versus the Asterik and Markezy from a month or two back, but wow, things got heated last week surrounding the the perceived impact of this game changer.
While not naming names, there were a ton of accusations thrown out — almost entirely without merit or facts, and when pushed back, the vocal minority exclaimed:
“So look it up boss man”
The accusations hurled at this revolutionary idea merited the most aggressive response ever — yes, the vocal few were wrong and I couldn’t sit silently any longer.
In essence, the vocal minority argued the following:
Trading draft dollars eliminates competition with the exception of a handful of super teams;
The big draft stacks are essentially buying their way to competitiveness;
Trading draft dollars inevitably increased the salaries of Tier 1 players;
Trading draft dollars negates quality drafts; and,
The LB6 rewards incompetent owners.
An avid fan of history, your Commissioner is well-equipped for this journey to dismiss these egregious, slanderous proclamations, but before we set sail, a few ground rules…
- I couldn’t do 2016 — it was too much as pretty much everything is in disrepair;
- As a reminder, we didn’t begin trading draft cash until the start of the 2019 season, so we have two seasons of traditional/missionary fantasy football seasons (2017 & 2018) and two seasons of revolutionary fantasy football (2019 & 2020);
- We’ll review the top four finishers in the playoffs, the LB6 winner and runner-up, and the last place team in the regular seasons, just for some variety; and,
- If I use any data that isn’t part of the 2017–2020 seasons, I’ll be sure to make mention.
That’s a good jumping off point, so let’s fucking go — I’m utilizing specific accusations from the vocal minority in Boy Chat last week below, so please don’t think I’m making up ill-conceived arguments, or unwittingly publishing a plethora of typos. These comments really happened.
Accusation: There is no accurate record on the site for this info
The fucking irony…
Accusation: You can’t deny that top tier player salaries are inflated because of this rule. It’s just a natural outcome of the system.
What if I said, “You can’t argue that ocean levels are rising because I empty my pool directly in to the ocean. It’s just a natural outcome?” Maybe, just maybe, Miami is going to be under water by 2030 because I emptied the pool in to the Atlantic, butttttt probably not.
This argument is an opinion appearing as fact looking for supporting evidence. Have salaries increased? Sure, top 24 running back prices increased 26% since 2016, but Top 12 backs’ cost increased just 1% — across the board, the cost of top 12 players have decreased at every other position in the past five seasons:
· Top 12 QBs down 30%;
· Top 12 RBs up 1%;
· Top 12 WRs down 9%; and,
· Top 12 TEs down 13%
Transitioning from 2018 (traditional/missionary fantasy football) to 2019 (revolutionary draft dollar trading), top 12 positional players’ costs all decreased. This accusation is an assumption looking for evidence and subsequently proven incorrect, that’s it.
Accusation: Would CMC go for $157 if everyone had less than $300 entering the draft?
I don’t like to play in hypotheticals but, yes, probably. In 2017, FIL drafted Antonio Brown for $136. One year later, in 2018, David Johnson was drafted for $132 by Tito Galen and kept the following year by Fredo for $142. The irony of course is that both AB and the original Johnson draft price were during our traditional/missionary non-draft dollar trading heyday.
In a hypothetical universe, where we can only play fantasy football in the missionary style, does CMC get drafted for 15% more than 2017 AB four years later? If its fairly obvious RB1s win titles by 2021, then undoubtedly yes, or close to that figure. If the vocal minority squabbles over $150 compared to $157 in a hypothetical, that’s fine, but it wouldn’t be outrageous to predict a running back going for $150+ back in 2017/2018.
Accusation: Prior to being able to trade draft dollars, I would be curious to see what the top salary was coming out of the draft.
See the AB $136 and Johnson $132 figures during the traditional/missionary era.
Accusation: And how many north of $100 players were drafted on average before the salary trade rule?
Love this question because this is where “Look it up boss” came from! Including 2021, in six seasons of drafting (and keepers), the average number of $100+ players is — wait for it — 3.5 players across all 14 teams per season. Remove 2016 (one player) and the league annually averages four players year-over-year. Two weeks ago, the $100+ players were CMC, Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones, and Davante Adams — for those counting at home, that’s five players.
If you’re really adament about trying to be right even if its obvious you’re wrong, you could argue that 2016 (one player) and 2017 (two players) showed a more balanced draft with the excesses of big stacks not impeding, but these were also drafts where Aaron Rodgers was drafted for $10 more than Zeke (2016) and seven quarterbacks and one kicker were selected as keepers (2017). Hence, there was a learning curve…
In any case, in 2018, one year of traditional/missionary fantasy football had four $100+ players kept/drafted whereas the following three years (2019–21)of revolutionary fantasy football have, on average, 4.66666 players at $100+.
While the league evolves annually, its pretty clear certain players (or types of players) will exceed the mythical 100 dollat marker, but any sense of an uptick is largely unfounded. This accusation is trash…
Accusation: And I only kept [Adams] at that price because of the anticipated inflation of salaries for top players.
My favorite part of this comment is that it was made post-2021 draft, where we already knew the cost of every player drafted. Its more an indictment of poor draft prep and misreading the market than a credible criticism of the revolutionary trading system in GMRRFFA. Ultimately, Adams was kept at a 21% higher cost than any other wide receiver. The wide receive market during and post draft deflated rather quickly… For example, Smeet had to send a WR1 AND draft cash in a deal to obtain an RB2. The “anticipated inflation” never occurred; rather than admit a failed analysis of the market, the easy route is to blame the revolutionary trades system.
Accusation: Sure but when the mantra is “stud RBs win the league” there aren’t many left at a reasonable cost after the inflation hits
Its not revolutionary that stud running backs win titles — look at Larry’s three-(co)peat. In fact, 2021 was fairly unique in that a ton of top running backs were actually available in the draft (coupled with COVID, part of the reason I tanked 2020). Over the past three seasons, no more than five top 12 running backs were available by draft time, but, this year, CMC, Kamara, Zeke, Aaron Jones, Chubb, and Saquon were all eligible plus CEH, Najee, James Robinson and Mike Davis (kidding).
However you wish to rank the collection of running backs, there were up to ten potential RB1s available, starting at around $65. Properly reading the running back market (and the WR market while we are here) probably would’ve helped a few teams…
Accusation: It’s the system not the owners. I think the system is flawed.
Is it though? We’ve met this group of owners, right? A cliff notes version of disastrous moves by our owners:
Stephen Gostowski keeper; trading $50 draft for Duke Johnson; second highest scoring team fails to reach the playoffs; dropped Kenny Golloday for nothing; had two-top 4 running backs two years in a row and failed to do better than fourth; dropping Alvin Kamara for Johnathan Williams, only kept Tee Higgins to save money then spent $20 on Lamar Jackson; kept two quarterbacks in one season; dropped Mark Andrews instead of Trey Burton; traded Dalvin Cook for an injured CMC; blamed his wife for his draft while he was driving, only to have it proven his wife outperformed him…
We get the point, right? Blaming the system for individual mediocrity is par for the course in GMRRFFA, but until the owners stop making silly personnel decisions, that ain’t a credible argument…
Accusation: It doesn’t matter in the end, we are playing in this system, but I am not going to say it’s a wondrous and revolutionary system when there are obvious drawbacks
Since all alleged drawbacks have been disputed as nothing short of a smear campaign, this just sounds like sour grapes.
Accusation: Unlike some, I want to try and compete every year and not mail it in right off the bat. So no, I am not selling off assets for draft cash for next year. I am focused on trying to win this season. I like the challenge of out-drafting other owners and making key moves during the season that augment my team. I just think letting owners throw salary around to do it cheapens the league as a whole.
This one sort of got me… once you dismiss the allegations with actual facts, the attempt to cheapen competitors’ team-building strategies quickly sets in. In 2020, I 100% tanked in large part because I thought the season would be cancelled due to COVID (speaking of revolutionary, you’re welcome for capping keepers at three years). I don’t want to speak for Smeet’s amazing tank job a few years back, but just because the vocal minority disapproves, nothing’s been cheapened.
We joked about Fredo winning the draft because in GMRRFFA, a solid draft and setting your line-up week-to-week (traditional/missionary fantasy football) doesn’t result in a title. On average, over the last four seasons, the champion and runner-up have fewer than three players from their August drafts remaining on their rosters by the end of the season. Remove Tito Galen’s ten rostered players from his impressive 2020 runner-up team, the average dips to 1.5 players per team.
However you want to read that, finalists almost always have an eye on improving their line-ups post-draft beyond a waiver acquisition. This wasn’t just skewed because of trading draft dollars; in 2017–2018, the champion and runner-ups averaged just 1.75 players on their squads from the August draft (hey, that’s fewer than rostered draftees on teams in 2019 and 2020).
What’s more fascinating is to look at draft budgets. In 2020, of course Tito Galen kept ten drafted players on his roster, in large part because he began the draft season with $400 draft dollars, second highest in the league.
How’d he get the stack to outdraft competitors in 2020?
For someone so adamantly opposed to this revolutionary style of fantasy football, it looks like TG basically did the same exact thing last year that Fredo and the Commish attempted this year in the draft. (This only difference is the Commish moved some of that depth and trade dollars to acquire Tyreek and Chubb ie the next step in the evolution of the big stack)
In August 2020, Tito Galen did phenomenal in the draft, spending on Adams and getting JT for a decent $47 cost. He also drafted Juju, Henry Ruggs, Damien Harris, and Matt Ryan, all pieces that eventually helped acquire Nuk from FIL, or were traded for draft dollars ahead of the 2021 season. In fact, Tito Galen is still enjoying the benfits of the 2019 tanking, keeping an RB1 and the WR1 for less than a combined $160 is a very good deal.
Would 2021 Tito Galen consider what 2019 Tito Galen did as cheap?
Tito Galen’s 2019 $400 stack is the largest draft pot of any top-four finisher in league history, ranking in the top five in all-time GMRRFFA budgets. Meanwhile, reigning champ Larry hasn’t had more than $250 for an upcoming draft (including 2021) yet still enjoys a fairly successful GMRRFFA season year after year.
Why? Last season, Larry made twelve trades and had 47 additional waiver wire pickups on his way to a fpostseason berth. By comparison, runner-up Tito Galen made just two trades and twelve waiver wire moves.Two very, very different strategies.
Which 2020 strategy worked out best?
Larry obviously won the title, but Tito Galen’s big draft stack had ten players worthy of remaining on his roster for the championship, some of whom were moved in the offseason for a lucrative cash windfall. The point of course is neither is wrong in their approach, but let’s remember the same critics today were the big stack they’re criticizing last year… and stll enjoy the windfall in 2021.
Accusation: It’s fucked up the draft economy inflating salaries, marginalized draft erformance, and creates a tier of teams each season that are so bad we had to create a losers’ bracket and prize to prevent owners from checking out. Behold the glory!
This goes back to the emptying the pool in to the ocean analogy I mentioned earlier. The draft dollar trading doesn’t inflate salaries or draft performances — perhaps it requires owners to be more precise in their budgeting and anticipating market costs, but that’s another topic for another day.
The LB6 wasn’t spawned from draft dollars trading — I honestly hate the tax, but the Ad Hoc committee kept big spenders in check while it developed an actual thoughtful way to keep every owner engaged to enjoy the league. The LB6 is a good way to think about next year if, say, you were in the middle of some personal stuff and forgot to draft a running back, or inexplicably kept two quarterbacks, or ESPN locked you out of your account on draft night. Imagine being Smeet, or FIL, or the Asterik coming out of draft night realizing you have zero motivation to compete because your team is trash. The revolutionary trading with future draft dollars coupled with the LB6 keeps you engaged regardless of whether Michael Carter is your starting RB or not…
That said, the motivation to win the LB6 doesn’t eliminate bad owners, but also the big stack draft budget is literally a grand illusion. For every Tito Galen taking a deep team to the finals with the second largest draft budget, there’s a Carlos dropping huge gobs of money on Mo Allie-Cox.
What Tito Galen’s big stack did in 2020 was more of an outlier then anything. On average, final four teams over the past two seasons started their keeper and draft processes with, on average, $298 — remove Tito Galen’s 2020 big stack and that average dips below $280. Its clear that savvy owners can not only win but excel regardless of their budget on draft night. Meanwhile, finalists in the LB6 start those seasons with approximately $349, and the postseason is anything but certain.
Maybe it really is the owners…
I don’t pretend anything in GMRRFFA is perfect, but where only eight owners supported the measure in January of 2018, I’m pretty confident ten or more would be on board with trading draft dollars today, just like the 27% to 50% to 70% of Americans supporting gay marriage. Trading draft dollars is revolutionary for fantasy football.
That said, in a GMRRFFA society, I assure you its okay to build your team however you want — I’ll prosecute those who attempt to judge you.
If a Ryan/Ridley stack in 2021 is your goal, embrace it.
If sending Nick Chubb away like its the end of Harry & the Hendersons, so be it.
If resting on your three-(co)peat and taking a break in 2021 is your strategy, do it to it.
If tanking two years ago to outdraft everyone last year, and then keep those players you scored from being the big stack, roll with it — but maybe keep your criticism of others’ startegy to yourself.
At the end of the day, love is love.