Go Your Own Way: A Star-studded GMRRFFA Draft Preview

In its second (maybe third) finest rendition, GMRRFFA was a well-oiled machine, multiple contributors adding both video and written content on a daily basis. If you recalled, our digital prescence dominated, culminating in guest podcast appearances and celebrity fantasy leagues. As we all recall, the success led to a ton of “me-isms,” where contributors desperately searched for clicks over content and the GMRRFFA audience audaciously asked, “Don’t you work?”

Anyways, like I said, that was probably the third best rendition of the league; the first is clearly the profit-driven, low-key league we’re currently in, where sponsors discreetly fund the Commish’s efforts so long as he inserts subliminal advertising to the every-increasing GMRRFFA fanbase.

Nestled between these two renditions is the GMRRFFA when I dropped the website! In late-July, 2018, we launched with a (shockingly) wordy email, including this:

I want owners to enjoy the experience as much as possible…the website is specifically geared towards you, the owners, and keeping the character(s) of the league as the real focal point.

My naivete was on full display! Looking back, that email elicited… zero responses. Sums it up… but pre-draft, that sense of hope and innocence that maybe, just maybe, this year [GMRRFFA Owner] will be a winner. For many of us, that hope is usually gone by Week 1, or to complete the analogy, receiving zero fucking responses to launching a website about a fake football league at Wix.com, which makes websites your way today!

In any case, that sense of renewed hope is once again upon us and, like bringing Fleetwood Mac back together for a reunion tour, I thought it made sense to bring back past contributors — the Intern, the Unicorn, and Smeet, who apparently thought we were on a word count and submitted less than 70 words. (I mean, a word count in GMRRFFA! GTFO…)

In any case, Fleetwood Mac is back baby (this analogy is really looking at the FIL/Tito Galen demographic)! Get your tickets at Ticketmaster.com! Buckle up, because all your favorite are back for one night only! The Commish as Stevie Nicks, Smeet as Mick Fleetwood, the Intern as the accordian-wielding Christine McVie, the Unicorn as Lindsey Buckingham, and Fredo as the cocaine addiction that almost ruined the band.

(In all seriousness, Smeet literally submitted 70 words, so I’m just linking the Smeet Cheat Sheet here. I love him, like a malignant tumor. It also gives me a chance to add his “Return of Smeet” video I spent three days making before he never sent a new mailbag. He’s ok.) (UPDATE: I couldn’t add the video; I’ll send around. I’m over it.)

Will Fredo dominate the draft?

Commish: It’s a tricky question because “dominate” is pretty vague. Is he obtaining 2–3 elite players? More than likely, but so are a number of his competitors, including myself. Drafts are more about finding those sneaky good players late (in our case, cheap) so it’s probably going to be too soon to say for certain. That said, Fredo will have a good night, talk it up as such, and pray Mrs. Maisel believes the conviction in his voice.

More importantly, five to six teams are going to have very good teams as well (Larry, Tito Galen, myself, Garcia, Coop, maybe the Unicorn, maybe Smeet), most of which started their roster builds with sound keepers (definitely not Smeet). Fredo’s been wearing blinders for some time now and literally has to pitch a perfect game Friday night to be at level with multiple competitors, whereas most of us need two or three good picks.

Unicorn: I actually think Fredo will do fairly well for himself during the draft. I think he gets one of the big two RBs, either Kelce or Kittle, and one of the top WRs. But what he does after that will make or break his season, since he has traditionally not done great during the in-season trade period. If he is able to lock up some second-tier players to either use as trade chips or bolster his starters, then yes we’ll look back and say he dominated. But if he blows his stack on his top four picks and gets outsmarted on the lower-profile players, we’ll probably consider him as having done good not great.

Sausage King: Zero chance. The Commish already locked down draft night victory and he locked it down weeks ago.

At best, Fredo can hope that the other owners at the league draft aggressively, helping his chances at drafting a team not too far off from the Commish’s impending all-star team. But for that to happen, he has to draft impeccably and have all the other owners shoot their shot at all the high-profile players over and over again throughout the evening.

What’s the league-wide strategy for the big stacks during the draft?

Unicorn: I’ve said it early and often — push up prices on the players we know the two big stacks want. It’s not complicated. And frankly, it’s not pushing up prices if we actually want the players in question. We all know which players we would be comfortable making our big spend on, so why not aggressively pursue them until we hit our budget limit, forcing the big stacks to increase their spend? IF OTHER OWNERS THINK THIS IS A GOOD IDEA THEN I HOPE THEY CONSIDER IT.

Commish: I know every owner wants to nominate the big names first to deplete the big stacks’ budgets, but I’d actually go in a different direction by nominating tier two or even three players to start. For example, as I mentioned earlier this week in Boy Chat, imagine nominating Najee Harris first. Yes, Fredo and I would love to snag him and both of us likely envision he’ll be available at a decent price ($75ish). That said, all 14 owners engaged because they haven’t spent a dime yet probably drives Harris’ number up closer to $95-$100. Do Fredo or I let anyone get him at this price point? Maybe, maybe not. Then, Chubb, Zeke, CEH, or Jones are nominated. In any case, nominating tier two and three guys early pushes big stacks to make a decision; draft players and deplete budgets for the inevitable CMC/Kamara battles, or hold steady hoping the other big stack doesn’t have enough cash for when CMC or Kamara comes, all the while giving the small stacks a legitimate shot at tier one-potential players. If Fredo and the Commish balk at low-end RB1s to start, think about the pressure on both of us when CMC, Kamara, and Ameer Abdullah are the only running backs left — two big stacks spending hundreds because they now have to acquire one of these guys, if not both.

All this to say, this is GMRRFFA and I have faith in literally three other owners to strategically think about this stuff, so yea, CMC, Kamara, Kelce, Nuk, Tyreek it is. Fredo and I will deplete large resovoirs on the elite players for which 90% of other owners have no chance, and fight the remaining 12 owners tooth-and-nail for the scraps.

Sausage King: Apply pressure and keep it on all night. Draft night is for the big stacks to lose. All of the pressure to perform is on them. All of the other owners, regardless of the nomination order, should absolutely do everything in their power to draft all the RB1’s, no matter the cost. Make the big stacks concentrate and sweat out every pick. The draft is a war of attrition, so make it hurt. Pain is pressure and pressure busts pipes. (Commissioner’s Note: The quote is “Pain is pleasure and pressure busts pipes.” This half-assed shit…)

On the other end of the spectrum, I have $46 and have absolutely no pressure to draft anyone of value any longer. This has a lot of benefits, but most relevant, is that I can kind of half pay attention to the first hour of the draft. This will come in handy in managing my disappointment, when inevitably only Mark, Garcia, and Smeet push the issue to acquire the big names. Boy chat has had a lot of strategies and misinformation floating around in it of late, but we’ll see who backs up their talk of heavy spending soon.

Who has the most leftover draft cash post-draft, and how much?

Commish: If its not Fredo, I’ll be shocked. The public relations campaign about running back values was targeting the entire league, not just a jabroni with a fat stack. Since most won’t read my response (looking for ‘funny stuff’ from my co-contributors and, also, spoiler but sorry in advance), they will spend big on the top tier, allowing Fredo (if he’s smart…) and myself to spend lower dollar amounts on tier two guys and rookies.

That said, Fredo finishing with $45 or more (10% of his budget) sounds very accurate and it goes back to the error in his keeper strategy. Snagging players as keepers with the big stack would’ve put him in prime position post-draft. Unfortunately, he’s trying to win in August…

Sausage King: Coop. My top picks would’ve included Fredo, Tito Galen, Makese, Coop, and maybe Toby for the reason that they seem the most likely to create budgets before the draft (positions or specific players), be disciplined enough to stick to them, and the least likely to draft “by feel”. Some call it willpower, I call it playing fantasy like a T-1000. Out of all of them, I chose Coop because 1) I’m sick of talking about Fredo and 2) he has the most draft cash left after keepers out of the rest of the BattleBots.

Unicorn: Fredo is the easy answer, but I think he’ll be motivated by not wanting to become a self-fulfilling prophecy and will overbid early then spend up late to avoid having a ton of cash left. I’ll go in a different direction and predict Stabs, since he has a relatively large stack and will either be caring for a literal newborn or in the actual delivery room during the draft.

How many times does the Commissioner pause the draft due to a childcare need?

Unicorn: This question is a red herring.

Sausage King: Given the amount of owners who may need to pause due to childcare issues, I love the idea of outlawing any pausing. Personally, I think it adds another element of danger and chaos to the whole evening, which I will always advocate for. Remember, always apply pressure.

Commish: Six to seven times between 8:32 and 11:07 pm. The Commish does a fine job keeping his childcare issues on the down low, knowing any advantage adversaries find could leave him vulnerable. Unfortunately for you all, I’ll control the draft and will undoubtedly use that to my advantage.

Highest price for a non-Running Back?

Unicorn: Despite pretending not to care about WRs, the Commish actually does need to come away from the draft with one of the two remaining studs, as do several other owners including Fredo, so I expect both Tyreek and Nuk to go for more than $100, with Tyreek probably breaking the $115 barrier.

Commish: Two weeks ago, I’d say $75-$80 but now, with the pressure on Fredo to form a competitive team, and three or four teams left without a running back, Nuk and Tyreek are eclipsing $100 easy. More so, Tito Galen keeping Adams while Garcia keeps Evans really hamstrung the position.

That said, historically, top-12 WRs average 17.5 points per week costing owners $55; top-24 receivers average 16 per game at $40. The drop off isn’t nearly as dramatic as nefarious owners who attempt to drive up the market pre-draft are suggesting, but the Nuk/Tyreek fruit is going to be too hard to resist, especially for owners who miss out on the RB1 bonanza.

Remember that the 18 wide receivers designated as keepers this year is about a 20% increase over the past three seasons in GMRRFFA and, I’d argue, its as much to do with the number of running backs who met the three year keeper rule as owners’ love for all things WRs. Last season, only five pre-season top 12 running backs finished in the top 12, and only one — Dalvin Cook— is even eligible to be a keeper. Last season, not only were pre-season rankings off substantially, those that were right weren’t eligible to be kept. Fairly certain if CMC, Kamara, Chubb, and Jones were eligible,each would be kept (its also why tanking 2020 and the 2021 draft is so much fun!).

So yes, long answer is the wide receiver craze is there, BUT its only because all the running backs were unavailably to be kept.

Sausage King: There is only one non-RB player left that is worth $100+.

What technology is most likely to fail during the draft?

Sausage King: The Jewish space laser.

Unicorn: Who cares.

Commish: Auto-draft will definitely “malfunction.” That will be the only excuse for Mark spending $50+ on Tyler Boyd. More notably, remember when we all thought Mark was a legit contender? In the last three years, he’s 20–20 despite actually trying. It’s pretty embarrassing and perfectly on par with the level of mediocrity this league enjoys year in, year out. The dude spent his off-season keeping a stud WR along with a WR2 and an RB3. He’s making the playoffs again, but that’s it.

Does Carlos show up for the draft?

Unicorn: I think Carlos not only literally shows up for the draft, but I think he figuratively shows up and ends draft night with a solid roster. New Carlos has been great about engaging in the league and I bet he has done some research. WIll he make some homer picks? Absolutely, but I expect he also makes some smart picks, and if overspending for Javante Williams makes his season more enjoyable who cares.

Commish: Who? Oh my brother-in-law? Yes, he’ll be there but definitely not to go after any credible players. KJ Hamler for $75 and the third WR in Jacksonville that he dropped Golladay for will be his for an easy $41.

Sausage King: Not if there is literally anything else to do and I frankly wouldn’t blame him.

Can you guess the first player ever drafted in GMRRFFA?

Sausage King: These last few questions have been absolutely brutal. If you’re having a hard time reading these, you should really try attempting to answer them. Didn’t we use to have an editor for these kinds of things?

Commish: Yes. Really easy question. Thanks.

Unicorn: Drew Brees?

Commish: Zeke Elliot by Garcia. Duh.

How many RB1s will Fredo draft?

Unicorn: I think he gets either CMC or Kamara, easy, and then gets one of the second tier of RB1s (Chubb, Zeke, or Jones). While the top tier prices will definitely be pushed up, I think he is going to sack up and spend on studs.

Sausage King: Kill me now…

Commish: To be honest, probably two, but the second one is going to be a low-end RB1 (Chubb, CEH, Najee). Ultimately, there are a ton of owners who need a running back, meaning Fredo will be surprised how quickly prices escalate.

Do the top two RBs (CMC, Kamara) go for more than $150, and how does that affect the second tier of RB1s?

Sausage King: Is that you, God?

Commish: Based on my league projections and models, yes, CMC is going well north of $150. As for Kamara, I think he approaches that number as well.

Unicorn: Yes. No need to go into the weeds here, they’ll both go for more than $150 and I bet CMC goes for $170 or more.

Can the Commish’s big stack overcome his Zero WR strategy?

Unicorn: I think Dan walks away with one of the top two WRs, and some mid-tier WRs, but that’s going to cost him more than he thinks and he’s going to have to either sacrifice a top TE or will miss out on the sleeper bid range. I know he thinks he’s going to be able to trade Damien Harris to one of his farm clubs for a top WR, but how many weeks does that take and at what cost to his competitiveness? We keep saying Fredo has the most to lose this year, but in reality if Dan does not win it all, he’s gonna become the Mush of GMRRFFA.

Sausage King: What’s that you say, God? I should walk into the light? Are you sure? What about the voices asking me about other team’s draft strategies? Ignore them and keep walking? Ok, I can do that.

Commish: First, who said I’m going with a zero WR strategy? Second, top-24 WRs score 1.5 points fewer on average than top-12 yet cost $15 less. Keeping that in mind, in 2020, only three pre-season top 12 wide receivers finished in the top 12 at the end of the season (Adams, Tyreek, Nuk). Must be an outlier… oh wait, in 2019, just six pre-season top-12 wide receivers finished in the final top 12. Yes, I’d love to have Tyreek and Nuk, but predicting top-12 finishes for WRs (with a few exceptions) while spending a ton to secure said players with only 37% certainty they’ll be top 12 is somewhat risky.

Last season, Devante Adams on average outscored the 24th overall wide receiver, Juju Smith-Schuster, by eleven points each week, the largest discrepancy in GMRRFFA history between the WR1 and the WR24. By comparison, on average over the last five seasons, the point difference between RB1 and RB 24 is 15 points per week. The eleven-point margin between Adams and Juju last season is essentially the average point difference between the RB1 and RB9 every season in GMRRFFA.

Wide receivers are very important — beyond running backs, quarterbacks, and tight ends, they’re probably number one! That said, there are plenty available in this draft that I’d be ok with starting along with CMC, Kamara, Ekeler, Montgomery, Chubb, and Damien Harris, before I trade him for max draft dollars.

Does a bidding war break out over Kelce?

Unicorn: Yes, absolutely. I think Kelce is the most expensive non-WR/RB stud, and I bet he costs north of $75 to draft. Again, with only two stud WRs, someone will think they are being clever by spending up on Kelce instead of affording a stud WR.

Commish: First, what a BRAVE prediction from the Unicorn! The TE1 will be more expensive than any other player drafted, except for running backs and wide receivers! Its hot takes like this that command automatic retweets and follows …

As for the question, why would a bidding war break out for Kelce when Mark Andrews will be available for under $70? I’m joking you rube. In reality, Kelce is probably the most kept player in league history, and rightfully so finishing as a top-two tight end every season since 2016, including number one the last three seasons (Fun game: guess the non-Kelce TEs — plural — who were TE1 in 2016 and 2017). At the onset of 2016, he averaged roughly 14 points per game with Mark Hutchinson’s keeper, Alex Smith, as his quarterback. By 2020, Kelce was at 21 points, easily the highest of any tight end in the last five years. I’m betting that’s an outlier; removing last season, Kelce averaged 16 points per week. Incredible, yes, but the average top-12 tight end is around 12.5 points per week, so not so dramatic (back to running backs, if RB1 averages 11 more points than RB9, that’s substantial; TE1 averages 7.8 more points than the TE12 per week, which is a lot but is it what you expected it to be, or a little underwhelming?). I’d love to see an escalating bidding war for Kelce while I subtly draft Andrews (averaging 13 per week) for like four bucks with an option to move him following a monster Week 1 to some chump for $20 2022 draft dollars and DK Met- oh wait, nevermind.

Sausage King: Apologies, I think I blacked out for a second. Anyways, do you guys remember when Kelce, Kittle, and Greg Olsen hosted a three-day summit to work out and share strategies with other TEs in the league, calling it “TE University”? Do you think they asked Olsen to join them, because they needed someone to fill out paperwork and carry their pads? Yeah, me too.

Will the Architect and his intern actually be able to construct a roster of players who start in week one with their existing budget?

Commish: Larry’s most notable under-$2-draft pick was Nyheim Hines last season, whom he traded to some rube for MT. Yes, Thomas had a bummer of a season, but let’s remember Larry made that move while starting with $40 something on draft night. The Architect went on to win his third (co)championship in a row. There’s a reason he’s largely been absent from this pre-draft process, leaning on interns normally tasked with Starbucks orders and hitting up OfficeMax. He starts with solid keepers, consistently moves solid keepers immediately when injured for RB1s, and wins. Why is this draft different for Larry?

Unicorn: He has roughly $2 to spend per roster spot. I have a ton of faith in Jon’s abilities to scout and spend wisely, but that’s nothing to fill out an entire roster. He probably has a couple decent players, but I think his post-draft roster looks like a decent QB, one decent WR, a “breakout candidate” TE, and then the rest are third-tier players or backups. Yes he’s great at trading, but how many shitty weeks does he have and what’s his record when he can finally convince two or three managers to sell their souls to him to make a competitive roster? He really has his work cut out for him.

Sausage King: This league is mine to rule, and mine alone.

Who is the first manager to run out of draft dollars and be forced to pay $1 for all their remaining players?

Sausage King: The answer is me, especially after I spend a big chunk of my available funds drafting _____ .

Unicorn: I’m betting Garcia spends big early on a stud, then is competitive on a couple mid-range players, easily becoming the first manager to have to pay $1 for all remaining roster spots.

Commish: This depends on how early Jarvis Landry is nominated and if FIL has any cash at that point. That said, FIL is out by 9:15 based on his algorithms.

How much does Carlos pay for Javante Williams?

Sausage King: Who? Wait, we’re still drafting Broncos this year? Seriously?

Unicorn: Probably the $40–45 range.

Commish: Is Carlos prepared to outbid me? He probably is, but it better push $50.

What league storyline are you most looking forward to post-draft?

Sausage King: If anyone answers anything else here besides Garcia vs Toby/Makese, don’t trust them, because they’re a goddamn liar.

POINT: “But what y’all call beef is not beef at all.” — Mos Def

COUNTERPOINT: “Band-aids don’t fix bullet holes.” — Taylor Swift

Commish: Beyond the healthy new rivalries blossoming in the league, and Fredo’s inevitable title match with Larry, its probably my months-long journey to confirm that running backs win championships. If its CMC and Kamara vs. Cook and Henry, I was right even if my team failed (which is essentially inevitable).

Unicorn: I think there’s going to be a real tension to Dan needing a stud WR if he can’t get one in the draft, the second tier of stacks trying to fill out their rosters, and Jon making his inevitable march to greatness by turning a paperclip into a Maserati. FAAB bids are only going to go so far, and I can’t wait to see who is the first sucker to start selling off assets.

Foreshadowing the likely outcome of the draft, who is your perceived favorite?

Unicorn: Honestly, I’m Team Fredo this year. I think he is going to have a good draft and bet he swings a good trade or two during the year. No one has an easy schedule in this league, but Matty has a decent slate to start the season, and I could see him being 4–1 or 5–0 after playing Jon in week five.

Commish: For very different reasons, it probably is Larry and Fredo, both of whom are best positioned post-keepers/pre-draft. If I had to guess, its Larry, in part because he’s been doing this every year, plus he knows when to pull the trigger on deals. Here’s a list of players Larry moved in the last two seasons:

· CMC

· James Conner

· Nyheim Hines

· Terry McLaurin

· Myles Sanders

· Antonio Gibson

· Chris Godwin

If things didn’t work out for Larry, he’d be lambasted, but they did and so we show him the respect he deserves. If Fredo turns around and makes similar moves to Larry, he might be legit. In fact, perhaps too legit; too legit to quit.

Sausage King: Good one, Unicorn. Stop being so stingy with your hallucinogens and pass that shit. But since I’m the only one telling the truth anymore (never a good sign), Dan will be the winner on draft night. He is in position to draft a premier RB1, have Ekeler as his RB2, a sturdy RB bench, a founding member of TE University not named Greg Olsen starting at TE, and with enough money for solid WRs. I’d be more hopeless than Bill Paxton watching his dropship crash in Aliens (“THATS IT MAN! GAME OVER, MAN! GAME OVER”), but luckily we’ve seen things fall apart for the Commish a few times before. Besides, there will never be a team more intimidating than Garcia’s old Infinity Stones squad. Remember that one? Never going to be topped. Not gonna happen.

Which team(s) are destined to be dreadful this season?

Sausage King: I have some concerns for Carlos, FIL, Toby, and Tito Galen. And when I say I have some concerns, I mean, I’m not really concerned at all.

Commish: I have a list of teams I believe finish in the LB6… Markezy, Unicorn (though I’m hedging), FIL, Carlos, Mark Hutchinson, and definitely the Asterisk. First, I’ve made it pretty clear about the whole RB love fest, but the Henry-Diggs deal could have massive repercussions this season, and the Asterisk likely won’t even sniff an RB1 in the draft, let alone one as dominant as Henry.

Even more, the Asterisk enjoyed back-to-back seasons with two top-four RBs (Henry and Jones) plus Tyreek Hill, and couldn’t finish better than fourth in 2019 or 2020 which is an abomination. His late-season additions of Hill in 2019 and Andrews in 2020 aside, he started the likes of Anthony Miller, Phillip Lindsey, and 2020 Cooper Kupp in playoff games. A dereliction of duty. Bummer.

In any case, I can’t envision him coming close to amassing that level of talent, diggs himself a hole, doesn’t add players that Tags recommended before Tags actually recommends them, and winds up in the LB6.

Unicorn: I don’t see how FIL turns his shitty keepers (I’m still not over Henry Ruggs) and small stack into a competitive roster. Plus he’s apparently Galen’s exclusive trade partner now, so I expect him to move at least one stud to everyone’s favorite track star.

Be honest, how did it feel writing about this stupid league again, even for a fleeting moment?

Commish: At first, I was really excited. Then I read the Unicorn’s copy and remembered this is just abuse. Its a new #NeverForget moment for me.

Unicorn: It’s an hour of my life I’ll never fucking have back.

Sausage King: This was great and really alot of fun. I forgot how much I missed having the Commish check on me in my cubicle, looking at my screen over my shoulder, and watching me type. Now if you’ll excuse me, I have to go find a new cover sheet for my TPS reports. Apparently, there was a memo.